Saturday, July 16, 2011

Shanghai: Real Predictions (Men Part 1)

Cielo feels our pain about having to pick him.

Oh Cesar, what are we going to do with you. We all like you in the sprint events, but you've got this positive drug test and the resulting non-action by Brazil hanging over you. With a July 20th CAS (Court for Arbitration of Sport) date looming, we all basically have to pick a top three with you swimming and with you not. How annoying. Lets get started:

50 Freestyle
1. Cesar Cielo
2. Fred Bousquet
3. Nathan Adrian
4. Stefan Nystrand

Comment: Picking a top 4 for obvious reasons. Bousquet did throw down last year's fastest time. Adrian is a head above anybody outside of Cielo and Bousquet in this event. I gave Nystrand a nod over the rest of a packed field based on the bounce back swim he had at Euros last year. 

100 Freestyle
1. Brent Hayden
2. Nathan Adrian
3. Cesar Cielo
4. Fabien Gilot

Comment: Some people are doubting Brent Hayden right now. They are saying that he hasn't "looked great" this year. I would say he's looked pretty awesome in the last 12 months when he recorded the best time in the world. In the meantime he's done what elite swimmers do- prepared for the next big meet. I actually expected Hayden to be a little off in some of these meets because of the relatively compacted amount of time to train between Commonwealth games in October 2010 and this meet in July 2011.

200 Freestyle
1. Tae Hwan Park
2. Ryan Lochte
3. Paul Biedermann

Comment: Ok, you just picked Michael Phelps not to medal. CALM DOWN. Deep breaths. Going out on a limb here. I think it's time for youth to be served a little in this 200 free and I see Park as the waiter. Biedermann gets to just focus on this event after a tough German trials. 

400 Freestyle:
1. Sun Yang
2. Tae Hwan Park
3. Yannick Agnel/Ryan Cochrane

Comment: Is Agnel swimming this? I've read conflicting reports. If he is I'm going with Agnel but if not I'll just throw a Canadian in there.

800 Freestyle
1. Sun Yang
2. Samuel Pizzetti
3. Ryan Cochrane

Comment: Boring! Just kidding. I feel strange not picking Mellouli but Pizzetti and Cochrane have looked pretty good.

1500 Freestyle:
1. Sun Yang
2. Ryan Cochrane
3. Pal Joensen

Comment: Completely sentimental with my bronze medal pick. Sue me.

Check back later for the rest of the men's events!


  1. So interesting to see 1-2 for the 200m Free go back and forth between Park and Lochte. I've read multiple predictions with these two as the winner interchangeably, and no Phelps in sight. With the Post-Phelps era that a lot of people is starting to think is coming (which I think is a bit premature), it will be interesting to see how everything pans out. I don't know if I would put my money on Park for this one, though. As much as I am biased for Lochte to win everything... Given his non-human ridiculous in-season training, and how well he does post taper... I'm thinking he might pull this one given how well his turns and walls have been coming along. But, with that being said, no one knows how bad his accident was, or how much his knee was effected when he "tweaked" it. I say that now, and watch it's going to be a repeat of 2007 when he had a broken ankle and still swam ridiculous. Looking forward to the rest of your picks! :)

  2. Wow, DeSantis. I really thought you wanted to beat me in the contest. Just when I'm proud of you for picking USA in the women's 800 free relay, you come along with these totally unpatriotic pick. Not to mention the fact that they're way less likely to happen than mine. Leaving Mellouli out completely could come back to bite, and Biedermann will be swimming the 400 free, despite his poor Trials (not that I expect him to medal). The Germans, once qualified in one event, can swim all in which they took top-two in; Biedermann won the 400, and he can also swim the 100 in which he took second to Marco Di Carli.

  3. Originally, Agnel had pulled out of the 400 after a bad respiratory infection cut out some of his peak training. He had also pulled out of the 400 free relay. But later they backed off of that and said that he would swim the 400, but just as sort of a "tune up" for his other races. Won't know for sure I guess until these GD psych sheets come out.

  4. Yeah I reserve the right to change these around a bit once I see a psych sheet.

  5. Cheers from the Hayden pick, watch Cochrane, he may surprise in the 800....been workin on speed in the run up..