Monday, July 18, 2011

Shanghai: Real Predictions (Men Part 2)

This is part 2 of my Men's predictions for the coming World Championships in Shanghai. Click here for part 1.

I will beat Peirsol not only in time but in beauty of hair

I am making these picks after spending far too long on a pool deck in Athens in super social mode. Basically I'm making this excuse right away- I may completely lose my mind over the course of writing this and pick Denis Pankratov to win the 200 fly because I'm convinced it's still 1996. So, in advance, forgive me. As we did with the women, we are saving the best (breaststroke and relays) for last. Here are the inferior strokes:

50 Back
1. Camille Lacourt
2. Liam Tancock
3. Nick Thoman

Comment: It kinda fiels like Lacourt is on his own tier here, with Tancock one notch below him. I almost went unpatriotic and went with Junya Koga but I think Thoman is slightly better and may actually be pretty focused for this event since it is his best medal chance.

100 Back
1. Camille Lacourt
2. Liam Tancock
3. David Plummer

Comment: After a couple of years of disappointing results at the biggest meets I am having a tough time stomaching Irie medaling. I feel good about Tancock and Plummer proved his mettle with his swimming last summer.

200 Back:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary
3. Ryosuke Irie

Comment: Again, having a tough time with Irie despite the fact that he has the top time in the world. This smells like USA 1-2 to me.

50 Fly:
1. Cesar Cielo
2. Fred Bousquet
3. Roland Schoeman
4. Matt Targett

Comment: It always used to frustrate me that Roland could consistently beat Ian Crocker in this event. I thought Crocker had the most speed of any of the 100 flyers, but Schoeman's killer start is such an advantage in this race.

100 fly:
1. Michael Phelps
2. Milorad Cavic
3. Joeri Verlinden

Comment: I like the way Verlinden has swum in the past year. This could be a comeback year for Cavic who was the clear second best guy in this event before missing time with injury.

200 fly:
1. Michael Phelps
2. Takeshi Matsuda
3. Bence Biczo

Comment: Yep, I totally made a Bence Biczo joke a month ago and now I am picking him. Maybe the triple taper will benefit him coming off whatever mega volume Hungarian program he is on.


  1. Biczo is a better pick than you might think...he didn't really taper for Juniors (he was slower than he was in 2010, when he went on a few weeks later to win the YOG gold).

    Clearly all of David's berating about you being not a patrior has gotten to you with some of these picks....

  2. Wow, LaCourt is a good looking dude!

  3. By the way I realized I forgot women's IMers. That's what happens when you try to blog and recruit at the same time. I will do women/men IM together as an addendum.